this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2025
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I was at a hibachi place in December and one of the managers was trying to light a candle. The lighter didn't work and he made a joke that it "must be made in China. It'll cost 25% more soon!" A guy at the table said "well you'll just need to buy one made in Pennsylvania!"
I asked him if he knew of any companies that manufactured disposable lighters in Pennsylvania, and he just said "Trump will make it happen!"
The disconnect is crazy.
Here's what I would tell someone that thinks manufacturing is coming back.
Say you're a factory owner and goods are costing too much to import from China. Your trusty Excel sheet tells you that, with the tariffs, you can make your widgets for the same price in America.
But you're a smart capitalist! You know these tariffs are going to end up wildly unpopular and will be rescinded sooner rather than later. In any case, the economy may tank and no one will be able to afford widgets.
Yet another problem is that tariffs will make American widgets toxic on the international market. Canadians are already looking to shed American imports.
Now are you, Mr. Smart Capitalist, going to risk building an American factory and get left holding the bag?
Alternate:
"Know what the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act was?"
The factory decision is exactly the calculation that will go through hundreds of MBA-educated business leaders.