this post was submitted on 15 Apr 2025
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For better or worse, AI is here to stay. Unlike NFTs, it’s actually used by ordinary people - and there’s no sign of it stopping anytime soon.
It is definitely here to stay, but the hype of AGI being just around the corner is definitely not believable. And a lot of the billions being invested in AI will never return a profit.
AI is already a commodity. People will be paying $10/month at max for general AI. Whether Gemini, Apple Intelligence, Llama, ChatGPT, copilot or Deepseek. People will just have one cheap plan that covers anything an ordinary person would need. Most people might even limit themselves to free plans supported by advertisements.
These companies aren't going to be able to extract revenues in the $20-$100/month from the general population, which is what they need to recoup their investments.
Specialized implementations for law firms, medical field, etc will be able to charge more per seat, but their user base will be small. And even they will face stiff competition.
I do believe AI can mostly solve quite a few of the problems of an aging society, by making the smaller pool of workers significantly more productive. But it will not be able to fully replace humans any time soon.
It's kinda like email or the web. You can make money using these technologies, but by itself it's not a big money maker.
Does it really boost productivity? In my experience, if a long email can be written by an AI, then you should just email the AI prompt directly to the email recipient and save everyone involved some time. AI is like reverse file compression. No new information is added, just noise.
I'm not a coder by any means, but when updating the super fucking outdated excel files my old company used, I'd usually make a VBA script using an LLM. It wasn't always perfect, but 99% of the time, it was waaaay faster than me doing it myself. Then again, the things that company insisted was done in Excel could easily have been done better with other software. But the reality is that my field is conservative as fuck, and if it worked for the boss in 1994, it has to work for me.