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me🇺🇦irl (sh.itjust.works)

submitted 1 day ago by bestboyfriendintheworld@sh.itjust.works to c/me_irl@lemmy.world

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[–] lorty@lemmy.ml -4 points 20 hours ago (2 children)

There's no evidence that Russia is going to lose steam economically or on the battlefield any time soon. Continuing to fight a losing war will only make any final deal between the US, Russia and Ukraine worse for the latter. There's a reason the 2022 treaty that was proposed looks unrealistic today, and whatever deal they make now will be much better than when they finally run out of men in the Ukrainian army.

With the situation as it stands, negotiating is the best way out if you actually care about Ukraine. If you just want to weaken Russia then sure, fight to the last ukrainian.

[–] Jax@sh.itjust.works 8 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) (1 children)

https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/russias-economy-collapsing

That's weird considering every single thing I've read about Russia's economy recently has been that it's going to collapse soon.

Edit: not a fascist

[–] lorty@lemmy.ml -3 points 19 hours ago (1 children)

A lot of news about this conflict has been about what Ukraine would like to be true, rather than the facts.

[–] Jax@sh.itjust.works 6 points 19 hours ago* (last edited 19 hours ago) (1 children)

Well, I ran this through several media bias checkers - it came back as unbiased. Site leans a little left, but that's about it.

So tell me again, what are you trying to say? Because if your answer is more or less 'it's propaganda' - I'm not sure I should entertain this topic any further.

[–] lorty@lemmy.ml -1 points 18 hours ago (1 children)

I'm not sure I understand. The article you have linked concludes with:

Writing for The Bell, Russian economy experts Alexander Kolyandr and Alexandra Prokopenko also disputed what they described as “claims of an imminent catastrophe” for the Russian economy. “In our view, all things being equal, it’s unlikely that the economy will implode soon,” they write. They have a point.

Which just agrees with what I've said about sanctions not working.

[–] Jax@sh.itjust.works 4 points 17 hours ago* (last edited 17 hours ago)

Why the world should care

In our view, all things being equal, it’s unlikely that the economy will implode soon, forcing Russia to scale back its military campaign in Ukraine; or that deposits will be frozen. That doesn’t mean, however, that nothing will ever happen to deposits, nor that the banking sector will always be trouble-free. However, there are far bigger threats to the Russian economy at the moment: for example, a lack of transparent decision-making, little independent expertise, and the classification of much economic data all undermines trust in the authorities. This is more likely to, eventually, lead to some sort of hard-to-predict, man made crisis.

This is the article written by Alexander Kolyandr and Alexandra Prokopenko. https://en.thebell.io/no-russia-is-not-on-the-verge-of-a-banking-crisis/

So, they dispute the idea that there will be a credit/ banking crisis. They do not dispute that the Russian economy is in bad shape.

Figures of the week

Inflation in Russia might be starting to slow. Between January 1 and January 13, prices went up 0.67%, which suggests annual inflation of 9.9% (it was 9.5% last year). However, January’s figures reflect one-off boosts from increased sales of alcohol and tobacco, a further rise in the recycling fee for cars, higher public transport fares and a weakening ruble. Together with a fall in consumer demand and an increase in consumer borrowing, this could mean inflation will peak in the first half of the year. In the absence of external shocks (such as tighter sanctions) this could pave the way for lower interest rates.

So, no, they do not agree that sanctions would not work. In fact, they imply here that an external shock like tighter sanctions would likely cause inflation to continue rising.

What would be most likely to cause a man made crisis if not the value of the rouble decreasing further + a continued bloody war?

[–] vga@sopuli.xyz 4 points 20 hours ago* (last edited 20 hours ago) (1 children)

There’s no evidence

There's no evidence period about anything that's not propaganda right now. Either side could be days away from total collapse without any of us knowing it.

[–] lorty@lemmy.ml -5 points 19 hours ago

True, but there are a few things we can glean through the war propaganda. The fact that Ukraine is outgunned to this day on the battlefield isn't some big state secret.