https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf - see Scenario C7 on page 19, 4 degrees is the current policy projection for 2100.
firlefans
joined 2 years ago
I agree, our track record since the establishment of the IPCC has been only very slightly better than "business as usual" scenarios. The current decline of the AMOC current was not predicted to happen as quickly as it has, and the early 2000s IPCC reports didn't even factor in Greenland ice sheet meltwater. I'm not a climate scientist, I think if we have one or two in this community, their input would be fascinating.
1.5C was never a threat, it was a target. The IPCC produces simplified "stakeholder" report, it would be a superior use of one's time to just give it a skim than spend time reading clickbaity website titles. https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/
Policymaker summary report: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf
Damn, I only took half of August off like a sucker. In Germany we also have fixed school holidays which are in August in some states, and cannot move them. Most parents then take 2-3 weeks off in the summer, others hoard their leave and are forced to take it in a big chunk before the company gets in trouble.