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This. It starts with a cascading series of small, often unrelated events that coalesce over time. They may not seem connected until viewed in retrospect. There might only be just a couple of belligerent nations pushing the boundary to see how much they can get away with at first, until eventually other nations decide to stop being bystanders and intercede in a now global conflict.
I'm not inclined to doomsay and predict that World War 3 is imminent, but I'm not going to rule out the possibility that people in the future might be talking about the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine or Israel/the US and Iran like they do about Germany annexing the Sudetenland and Japan invading China.
And with the threat of nuclear armageddon feeling closer than ever since the Cold War, I'm worried the takeaway from these events is just going to be that not having nuclear weapons is a mistake (Ukraine voluntarily surrendering theirs, Iran supposedly trying to develop some). The best way to not get invaded is to have nukes.