this post was submitted on 08 Aug 2025
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Those states are, LOL were, massive agricultural exporters, doubt other states with more flexible economies will get hit that hard. A 6% nationwide reduction would be absolute chaos. 2008 was "only" a 4.3% GDP shrink and that was disastrous.
These dipshits will eventually figure out that Trump will lead us into economic ruin if things don't change. Will they come to Jesus before it's too late? I'd bet not. Problem with gauging America's economy is that it's so damned big, it's hard to tell what policy effects are until way down the road. This thing doesn't turn on a dime.
We've already trashed our allies trust and if Trump keels over tomorrow, they're not going to suddenly start buying America again. The master of branding has fucked our brand.
The US has had relatively steady population growth for so long, all our normal ranges for economic indicators have an assumption of a growing population baked in, including what a healthy amount of GDP growth is - enough to both cover the prior GDP per person for the new people, and also have some productivity growth.
This year with all the immigration policy changes (and maybe some emigration pattern changes), projections are for a population decline. Which means potentially GDP could maintain or slightly improve on a per-capita basis, and yet decline overall.
The current policies are doing damage that will last at a minimum of decades, but I think it's important to try to sort out the real damage from the weirdness of massive change. If we manage to get a majority of elected officials who actually want to do repairs, good analysis will be important to figuring out best bang for resources to focus on.