Obviously depends a lot on the car, and should they have the best car in Australia, there's still Leclerc to win against, and he's no slouch.
this post was submitted on 22 Feb 2025
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Lewis Hamilton unsure he can replicate Fernando Alonsoโs debut Ferrari F1 win
(www.motorsportweek.com)
I think if Ferrari is somewhat ahead and it's mostly about HAM vs LEC, then Leclerc has a much better chance of winning the championship. He knows the team and the car way better. On the other hand if 2025 is as close as last year and 3 or 4 constructors are taking points off of each other, it would be more about consistency and not getting some unlucky DNFs, in that case I imagine it could be way closer between the two.
Fernando was 29 when he joined Ferrari. Lewis is 40. This simply is not a comparable situation.