I regret to inform you all that Elon Musk appears to be completely addicted to AI-generated anime porn..
TechTakes
Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
This is not debate club. Unless it’s amusing debate.
For actually-good tech, you want our NotAwfulTech community
He isnt the only weird fascist attracted to digital porn. And not just the rank and file.
He're hoping that the more he spends time gooning the more he'll leave the rest of us alone. crosses fingers
new zitron https://www.wheresyoured.at/ai-bubble-2027/
Zitron taking every opportunity to shit on Scott's AI2027 is kind of cathartic, ngl
I like how he doesn't even bother debunking it point by point, he just slams the very premise of it and moves on.
I like how Zitron does a good job of distinguishing firm overall predictions from specific scenarios (his chaos bets) which are plausible but far from certain. AI 2027 specifically conflated and confused those things in a way that gave it's proponents more rhetorical room to hide and dodge.
it's a long one and right behind paywall there's a
Table Of Contents
How I Am Justifying "Guessing"
NVIDIA, And What Will Happen Soonest
Nevertheless, NVIDIA Will Accelerate The Collapse If Its Stock Falters
Big Tech's Bubble Burst Moment Will Be When Growth Slows
Capital Expenditures Are The Next Thing To Go
CoreWeave — A Timebomb For The Markets and AI Writ Large
How Does CoreWeave Collapse?
The End Of AI Startup Funding
How The Collapse Of Funding Begins — A Scenario (Chaos Bet)
Costs Are A Brewing Scandal In Generative AI — Another Chaos Bet
The Curious World of Anthropic and OpenAI, And My Own Suspicions About Their Businesses
How About Anthropic's Costs?
An Important Note: Anthropic and OpenAI's Costs Are Dramatically Underrepresented Because Neither Company Pays For The Construction Of (Or Owns) Their Infrastructure
Questions About OpenAI's Revenue And Costs
OpenAI Is Using Cal State's "Edu" Contracts To Pump Its Paid Business User Numbers — And It's Unclear How Long It Keep A User In Its Numbers
What About Government Contracts?
OpenAI Is Using "$1 for a Month" Subscription Deals On Teams To Juice Business User Numbers — And Offering Deals For ChatGPT Plus For $10-a-month To Stop User Churn (REMINDER: OpenAI Loses Money On Every User Anyway)
I Believe OpenAI's Costs Are Worse Than They Seem — Where Is All The Money Going?
OpenAI Will Burn At Least $3 Billion On Salaries In 2025, And May Spend As Much As $8 Billion — With Any Layoffs Guaranteeing An Industry-Wide Panic
Compute Costs Are Likely Astronomical, Burning At Least $15 Billion — If Not $20 Billion — In 2025 Alone
OpenAI Is Bleeding Out, And Could Run Out Of Money By End Of Year
Chaos Bet: Microsoft Kills OpenAI By Blocking Its Non-Profit Conversion
Even If Microsoft Agrees, OpenAI Does Not Have Enough Time To Convert To A For-Profit By The End Of The Year
Chaos Pick: OpenAI Does Not Convert, And Does Not Receive More Money From SoftBank
Alternate Chaos Pick: OpenAI Does Convert, But SoftBank Can't Get The Money
How Does OpenAI (or Anthropic) IPO?
I Believe Both OpenAI and Anthropic May Be Overstating Revenues And User Numbers, Using The Media To Launder Their Reputations
What Happens Next?
So Why Did You Say 2027?
RE: (meta?)speculation about the quantum bubble. So the preceding two tech bubbles tried to worm their way into the arts: NFTs, and slop. How do we think the quantum hucksters are gonna try co-opt craativity?
No idea, but the big problem area to look out for imho is when it gets matched with quantum woo again. And if people manage to link that to computers.
Lots of woo and mysticism already has a veneer of stolen Quantum terminology. It's too far from respectable to get the quasi-expert endorsement or easy VC money that LLM hype has gotten, but quantum hucksters fusing quantum computing nonsense with quantum mysticism can probably still con lots of people out of their money.
Quantum as a concept doesn't really have any way to co-opt creativity that I can see - its a rather "science-y" concept in the public eye, far away from anything associated with the arts.
Probably won't stop the hucksters, though - they'll happily make shit up if it means butting in on artists' turf.
Automobile advertising
At the risk of doing some "founder mode" idiot's homework for them, impermanence is inherent to a lot of artforms, and I can see some insane and vague pitches to use quantum to "capture the magic moment". Or maybe they tie it back into NFTs with quantum technology that comes up with every variant of the bored chimpanzee at once.
Enjoy this malicious prompt trying to find crapto secrets after a compromise
Finally, I dislike the arrogant, brash, confident, tone of many posts on LessWrong.
Hmm, OK. Where might this be going?
Plausibly, I think a lot of this is inherited from Eliezer, who is used to communicating complex ideas to people less intelligent and/or rational than he is. This is not the experience of a typical poster on LessWrong, and I think it's maladaptive for people to use Eliezer's style and epistemic confidence in their own writings and thinking.
I bump into a lot of peers/colleagues who are always “ya but what is intelligence” or simply cannot say no to AI. For a while I’ve tried to use the example that if these “AI coding” things are tools, why would I use a tool that’s never perfect? For example I wouldn’t reach for a 10mm wrench that wasn’t 10mm and always rounds off my bolt heads. Of course they have “it could still be useful” responses.
I’m now realizing most programmers haven’t done a manual labor task that’s important. Or lab science outside of maybe high school biology. And the complete lack of ability to put oneself in the shoes of another makes my rebuttals fall flat. To them everything is a nail and anything could be a hammer if it gets them paid to say so. Moving fast and breaking things works everywhere always.
For something not just venting I tasked a coworker with some runtime memory relocation and Gemini had this to say about ASLR:
Age, Sex, Location Randomization
I apologize to bring you the latest example of the intersection of US fascism with silicon valley tech industry.
This time the Whitehouse have decided that UI design is kinda important (gee I wonder if there used to be a department or two for that): https://americabydesign.gov/
Well nothing wrong with a little updating of UI anywa--
What's the biggest brand in the world? If you said Trump, you're not wrong. But what's the foundation of that brand? One that's more globally recognized than practically anything else. It's the nation…where he was born. It's the United States of America.
To update today's government to be an Apple Store like experience: beautifully designed, great user experience, run on modern software.
Oh god kill it with fire.
The web design of their website is also worth remarking on here:
- The title text that reads "AMERICA by DESIGN" is an SVG. The alt text is "America First Legal logo"
- The page contents are obnoxiously large and obnoxiously gray before they fade in.
- ~~For some reason~~ Every single word gets it's own element to make the obnoxious fade in possible. Because I guess that's what happen when you fire all the people who actually know what they're doing.
- They managed to include a US flag icon with only 39 stars which is too few stars to be official and too many stars to be visible at teeny sizes
- The favicon is just 16x16 pixels of the word "by" in cursive that's so blurry you can't actually tell that's what it is.
- If your browser width is between 768px and ~808px there is overlapping text at the top.
The tech bros tied to this? Joe Gebbia co-founder of AirBNB, along with Big-Balls. Maybe others but those are the two who were retweeted by the twitter account.
Edit: also this part:
©2025 National Design Studio
Someone ought to remind them of US copyright law because official federal work is in the public domain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_status_of_works_by_the_federal_government_of_the_United_States
More of a pet peeve than a primal scream, but I wonder what's with Adam Tooze and his awe of AI. Tooze is a left-wing economic historian who’s generally interesting to listen to (though perhaps in tackling a very wide range of subject matter sometimes missing some depth), but nevertheless seems as AI-pilled as any VC. Most recently came about this bit: Berlin Forum on Global Cooperation 2025 - Keynote Adam Tooze
Anyone who’s used AI seriously knows the LLMs are extraordinary in what they’re able to do ... 5 years down the line, this will be even more transformative.
Really, anyone Adam? Are you sure about the techbro pitch there?
Lesswronger reads about Orcas the first time in their life. Decided that training them to become smarter than humans is now the next important step.
(I'm very very far from an orca expert - basically everything I know about them I learned today.)
They made several posts about it, and just the opening bits are funny. I obv didn't read any of them an only looked at the opening statements. I will produce a quote from each.
It is currently plausible (~~352115%~~[1]23%) to me that average orcas have at least as high potential for being great scientists as the greatest human scientists, modulo their motivation for doing science[2].
Yes, the weird percentage is in the text, the [1] footnote says 15%, no idea why they can't edit their text normally.
(For speed of writing, I mostly don't cite references. Feel free to ask me in the comments for references for some claims.)
Context: I think there’s a ~17% chance that average orcas are >=+6std intelligent.
And from the last article, two lines as a treat:
TLDR: I now think it’s <1% likely that average orcas are >=+6std intelligent.
(I now think the relevant question is rather whether orcas might be >=+4std intelligent, since that might be enough for superhuman wisdom and thinking techniques to accumulate through generations, but I think it’s only 2% probable. (Still decently likely that they are near human level smart though.))
(Nice of the person to think of the orcas btw, just wish it was more preservation than 'how can we make these animals help us out).
E: apparently "An alternative approach to superbabies" is also about orcas, they just no longer stand behind it.
Can someone please look into this?
Larry Niven had a fixed idea about cetacean intelligence, and it showed up in mass-audience SF like Star Trek IV.
The story below is another example of really creepy things being done in the name of science in the postwar era.
I have three more examples of sapient marine mammals!
- whales warning the team of an impending solar flare in Stargate Atlantis via echolocation induced hallucinations
- the dolphins in hitchhiker’s guide to the galaxy
- whales showing up to help in one book of Animorphs while they are morphed into dolphins
Gotta be trolling.
Somebody on LW also thought so, and they replied they are 100% serious. Which still could be trolling. Lot of effort for no payoff however. Personally I think this person is just very young. I can get a teenager going all in on this. (a teenager being this much into IQ stuff is pretty bad tbh).
I was thinking this also, like it's the perfect parody of several lesswrong and EA memes: overly concerned with animal suffering/sapience, overly concerned with IQ stats, openly admitting to no expertise or even relevant domain knowledge but driven to pontificate anyway, and inspired by existing science fiction... I think the last one explains it and it isn't a parody. As cinnasverses points out, Cetacean intelligence shows up occasionally in sci-fi. to add to the examples... sapient whales warning the team of an impending solar flare in Stargate Atlantis via echolocation induced hallucinations, the dolphins in hitchhiker's guide to the galaxy, and the whales showing up to help in one book of Animorphs.
The last time someone looked into this it was with dolphins, did not go well, lead to more human-dolphin sex than communication, and ended in a dolphin suicide.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/jun/08/the-dolphin-who-loved-me