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this post was submitted on 28 Mar 2025
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Their IPO was priced below $100, thus far the model still works. I'm guessing they'll go the way of facebook, with dwindling user engagement but somewhat stable ad revenue since people go there out of habit or through links from random google searches for obscure topics.
But Facebook has network effects that basically lock people in. If they leave they leave their friends and family behind. It causes a collective action problem. If you leave, your friends and family stay behind. You want some way to move everybody all at once, and that's really hard.
But, because Reddit is based on pseudonyms, people don't tend to form attachments the same way, at least IMO. That means you feel less locked in. As long as you can find people talking about those same subjects elsewhere, you aren't as locked in.
In addition, Meta is part of the online ad duopoly along with Google. They're really good at monetizing their users. Reddit is just a smallish website and can't compete with that.
For now, random google searches take people there. But, that's based on the idea Reddit isn't going to lock results behind a paywall / registration wall, or Google isn't just going to slurp up the results and present them so someone never has to click on the Reddit link.
They're not below the IPO price yet, but they certainly aren't growing all that fast. They spent most of the time since the IPO barely moving, then they had a 3 month growth in their stock price, followed by a huge dip. The investors want growth, and growth requires enshittification, and enshittification will make people leave.
Very good point, I didn't really consider that. And now I feel bad for not replying more to your elaborate response, but there's simply nothing else I could add.