dfyx

joined 2 years ago
[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 4 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (1 children)

There are several events that might have had the possibility to turn the war:

  • Germany doesn't attack France at all, concentrating their forces in the east which gives the UK fewer reasons to join the war
  • Japan doesn't attack Pearl Harbor so the USA don't join the war (yet)
  • Operation Mincemeat fails and the Axis keeps their troops in Sicily, preventing the Allies from establishing a base in the Mediterranean.
  • Axis spies uncover the plans for D-Day before it happens, Germany bombs the landing boats and thousands of Allied soldiers drown before they can reach land
  • The Manhattan Project fails to produce a working nuclear bomb. Most of Germany and Italy has already fallen but Japan stays strong and can eventually send troops to Europe.
[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 6 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (7 children)

Hard to say. I'm not a historian, so I can only speculate. I would assume that Hitler would eventually select a successor and there is no way of telling how good that person would be at keeping the Reich in order.

comparable to say Soviet communism’s collapse in the real world

As far as I understand it, the fall of the Soviet Union was preceded by at least a decade of economic struggle that was caused by a multitude of factors. Basically the only thing they had to export was oil and weapons and the only nations they could trade with were relatively poor. When their oil production cost kept rising, they just couldn't keep their exports high enough to import enough food and luxury goods to keep their population happy. This was a prime driver for unrest in regions that bordered the west, especially East Germany who of course got news of what life in West Germany was like. The Soviets were eventually forced to open the Berlin Wall and from there, there was nothing they could do to keep people from just leaving and fully collapsing the economy in the process. To this day, 35 years after the reunion, former East Germany is way behind the rest of the country even though on paper they have the same chances as everyone else, just because there has been a massive brain drain.

So overall, the collapse of the Soviet Union was less a failure of communism itself and more a failure to counteract their economic weaknesses as well as a result of their isolationism. The USA didn't win the Cold War because of the inherent superiority of capitalism but because the world drinks Coca Cola, wears jeans, watches Hollywood movies and works with IBM-compatible PCs. If the Soviet Union had pivoted their economy to those kinds of goods and had managed to export them to the west, they might have become what China is today.

So it all comes down to the question if alternate-history Germany manages to do that. With technology advancing slower overall and therefore becoming less of a factor in global markets, and at the same time keeping a lot of top scientists who in the real world left for the other superpowers, they could probably do it.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 2 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

I imagine that we would be more scientifically advanced

Much of the scientific advances in the second half of the 20th century were driven either directly or indirectly by the Cold War:

  • rockets were first developed to deploy nuclear warheads, then to deploy spy satellites and eventually to demonstrate technological superiority
  • computers were needed to calculate rocket trajectories
  • the internet was developed to connect defense systems in the event of incoming nuclear missiles, either to launch countermeasures quickly or to stay in contact if the surface gets uninhabitable

Without two super powers of similar strength who have access to both nuclear bombs and rockets, all of this would happen way more slowly and the main reason why the USA and Soviet Union developed rockets at a similar pace was because they both employed German rocket scientists after the war. Without this, there would be no space race, just slow and steady progress of one power who can then keep everyone else from catching up.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 24 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago) (11 children)

Let's assume that the Axis winning the war means they keep all territory they've had at the height of their expansion in our timeline but don't expand much more, at least not immediately.

  • The EU does not exist but as most of Europe is either occupied by Germany or allied with it, there might be a similar organization with a way stronger Germany at its center.
  • If a NATO-like alliance forms, it excludes most of Europe, mainly consisting of the USA, Canada and UK, maybe Spain and Portugal
  • The Soviet Union is way weaker than in our timeline with most of Eastern Europe being under German control. They still have control over Central Asia, probably more than in our timeline.
  • The Allies still control Gibraltar and are able to intercept ships passing through the English Channel, making the west of France the only safe access to the Atlantic for the Axis.
  • Wernher von Braun and other rocket scientists stay in Germany, giving the USA and Soviet Union a massive disadvantage in the development of ICBMs. The USA may have nuclear bombs but their only way to threaten Germany with them would be UK-based bombers which are way slower and easier to defend against. On the other hand, a failure of the Manhattan Project might be the whole reason why the Axis wins the war. Everyone will figure it out eventually but as we see from real life, it might take decades.
  • No proper cold war as there are no two super powers exercising mutually assured destruction with ICBMs but probably ongoing tensions along the German-Soviet border. The USA probably stays out of it to avoid becoming a target for either side.
  • Italian East Africa (Somalia) becomes the most important rocket launch site in the world, as it is the only Axis-controlled territory that is close to the equator and has open ocean to the east. Some smaller rockets may launch from Japan. French Guiana might be under Axis control but shipping rockets over the Atlantic is dangerous when they could get intercepted by foreign ships. Without competition, manned spaceflight develops a lot slower, maybe not at all.
  • Without manned spaceflight and the threat of a nuclear war, there is less incentive to develop computers and the internet.
[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 53 points 2 weeks ago (3 children)

It will cost billions if not trillions. But that money goes into the pockets of rich people so it's okay.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 3 points 2 weeks ago* (last edited 2 weeks ago)

A pretty good but not fantastic camera or lens

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 5 points 2 weeks ago (1 children)

Definitely Star Wars: Galactic Battlegrounds, an RTS in the Star Wars universe that uses the Age of Empires 2 engine and has very similar gameplay.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 1 points 3 weeks ago

This photo perfectly summarizes most of my Mastodon mutuals.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 31 points 3 weeks ago (8 children)

Absolutely and it has done so for over a decade. Not LLMs of course, those are not suitable for the job but there are lots of specialized AI models for medical applications.

My day job is software development for ophthalmology (eye medicine) and people are developing models that can, for example, detect cataracts in an OCT scan long before they become a problem. Grading those by hand is usually pretty hard.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 7 points 3 weeks ago (1 children)

As someone from Europe I can guarantee you that 5-10cm (2-4") at the bottom and 30cm (12") at the top with almost no gap between the door and wall are by far enough to not suffocate. Maybe put a vent in the ceiling for good measure.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 14 points 3 weeks ago

It always baffles me that this is considered a luxury in the USA while in Germany (and I assume most of Europe) this is the absolute standard. Stalls where the door doesn't lock properly or where the indicator on the outside is faded so that you can't reliably determine if it's occupied are already considered signs of bad maintenance. Gaps that you can look through without pressing your face right against them would be a "nope, I'll never visit this place again" level scandal.

[–] dfyx@lemmy.helios42.de 35 points 4 weeks ago (4 children)

Until they notice that cleaning up after failed AI-written code is more expensive than writing working code from the start. Which is already happening for some companies.

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